Upcoming presidential elections of Africa’s largest and most populous economy is very much likely to be the most divisive in recent times, with the Naira plunging amid global decline in oil prices as well as security threats by Boko Haram.
The presidential poll set for March 28 has been anticipated to produce anything but amity and harmony.
The presidential election sees the incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian from the south, and former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim, face off in a contest which many analysts say is too close to call.
While many are concerned about Buhari’s age and alleged sympathy with Islamic fundamentalism, these are overshadowed by even greater worries about Jonathan’s inability to stem security threats by Boko Haram and address corruption, according to Manji Cheto, vice president of corporate advisory company Teneo Intelligence.
A Jonathan win will guarantee a degree of political continuity and marginal improvements in key areas like power supply and economic diversification, Cheto said in a report on the elections.
But major improvements are unlikely in area such as security and a crackdown on corruption, he said.
On the other hand, a Buhari victory, according to Cheto, is unlikely to lead to a major shift in economic policy but will result in a focus in the first few months on issues such as corruption and security, both of which are high on voters’ agendas.
Boko Haram have reportedly become more active in the last few weeks, with numerous reports of attacks, including some carried out by children.
Amnesty’s Adotei Akwei told the BBC that although it was still difficult to access the area where the attack took place, the Nigerian government was “grossly understating” the death toll.
“They killed so many people,” one man told the group. “I saw maybe around 100 killed at that time in Baga. I ran to the bush. As we were running, they were shooting and killing.”
An estimated 2,000 people were killed in Borno state town of Baga in an assault early January in what Amnesty International described as the group’s “deadliest massacre” to date, yet Jonathan failed to condemn the attacks.
Growing insecurity is just one challenge facing President Jonathan particularly in recent months. Since taking office in 2011, Jonathan’s own job approval rating has remained consistently low, standing at 35 percent in 2014, according to a poll by Gallup.
There are growing concerns of post-election violence which could worsen Nigeria’s already existing security crisis.
“The certainty of violence after the 2015 elections is higher than it was in 2011. If President Jonathan wins, the north would erupt into violence as it did in 2011. If General Buhari wins, the Niger Delta will erupt into violence. I don’t believe that we need rocket science to make this prediction,” Nigerian diplomat Bolaji Akinyemi said.
The Naira currency suffered its biggest monthly decline in more than five years last month, amid concern over political uncertainty and the central bank’s inability to manage the currency as oil prices fell.
In spite of repeated promises by President Jonathan’s administration, comprehensive oil sector reform is nowhere in sight.
The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) is yet to be passed six years after it was first proposed with no end in sight to disagreements over terms resulting in a loss of over $28 billion in scrapped or deferred investments in the oil sector over the last five years.
Besides stalling new investments in the Nigerian oil industry, the delay in the passage of the PIB is also holding back plans by the government to privatize its four ailing refineries, state privatization agency BPE said.
“We are waiting for the passage of the PIB before we proceed on the privatization process for the refineries,” Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) spokesman Joe Anichebe said.
Data released by state oil company NNPC showed that the four refineries operated at an average of 8.7 percent of their combined capacity of 445,000 b/d in September.
DAN OJABO
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